Daily Fantasy Golf Picks Strategy | PGA Waste Management Phoenix Open 2018 | Draftkings
We were looking good at the end of Friday last week and then we imploded come late Saturday. Then we cried all Sunday to the point where my pillow was a giant sponge. This week, we’re going with the same type of player all over our tickets. We love guys that can’t putt!!
Here’s our copy and paste of the shitty preview.
The Waste Management Phoenix Open may host the most exciting final four holes in golf. There are two eagle opportunities with the Par 5,15th, and the short par 4, 17th. Throw in the raucous crowd at the par 3, 16th, and you have a recipe for noise and mayhem coming down the stretch at the TPC Scottsdale.
The course is a Par 71, measuring 7216 yards, with 79 sand bunkers which are strategically placed around the greens and on the fairways. There are also six holes which feature water, including 3 of the last 4 holes. Scoring is generally low, so players can be aggressive on this course, however they have to pick their moments as several holes can jump up and bite you hard. Looking at the past 10 winners they have averaged -18, so expect the same this year, unless the weather is out of the ordinary.
So what are we looking for this week? If you take a look at the fairways hit percentage over the years, it’s usually between 60%-62% on average, which is slightly lower than normal, and GIR for the week is around 69%-72% on average, which is slightly higher than normal. Players with solid histories at this venue in the last 8 years include: Hideki Matsuyama, Phil Mickelson, Brendan Steele, Bubba Watson, Scott Piercy, Hunter Mahan, John Rollins, Harris English, Kevin Na, Vijay Singh, Graham Delaet, Charles Warren, Rod Pampling, Webb Simpson, Charles Howell, Gary Woodland, Ryan Palmer, Ryan Moore. JB Holmes, Jason Dufner, Brandt Snedeker and Martin Laird.
So what do all these players have in common? For the most part, they are all above average GIR players from off the fairway. When you’re not hitting fairways at a regular clip, being able to hit it from the rough or the bunkers becomes key. You’ll notice that there’s a mixture of short and long hitters in there, but it doesn’t hurt to be long here.
Besides GIR from off the fairway, we still think you should pay attention to regular GIR as well. If you hadn’t noticed yet, there are tons of bunkers on this course which make club selection off the tee more difficult, so course mangers, like a Dufner, can do well here. Why? Because of the strategic sand. Avoiding it is best, but being an excellent sand player will come in handy on the fairways and around the greens too. Speaking of the greens, you’ll get a mixture of large ones and small ones throughout the day. It sums up the course in many ways as well. With varying lengths of holes and wide variety of second shot lengths.
So to sum up what we’re looking for: GIR from off the Fairway, Length (but not the be all and end all), Sand Skills, and Course Managers/Ball Striker Types. As always, we love form, history, and putting ability too.
Now for the breakdown.
Justin Thomas 100% – He may not have the course history of others here but he’s one of the best players in this field and can win at anytime. His price is a heavy discount to the players of his calibre and therefore he makes the squad.
Alex Noren 100% – Coming off a big 2nd place, he’s just a very good price that we can’t resist. He’s never played here but we’re willing to take the chance.
Kevin Chappell 100% – We love Kevin Chappell at sub 8000 prices and we’ll go hard on him every chance we get. He may not have the best record here but he’s never been this good. Last year at this time he was still trying to refind his game, so we’re taking him with confidence after his 6th place finish last time out.
Scott Piercy 75% – He played well at the Career Builder and his game seems to have turned back around. He was 3rd at this tourney in 2013. Solid value.
Emilliano Grillo 75% – He’s making cuts again and with a high finish here and there. He’s never missed a cut at this tourney so we feel like if his putter shows up or chooses to throw darts this week, he can get one of those high finishes.
Ollie Schniederjans 50%- I’m sure many will be off Ollie this week after his MC, but sometimes you must take a guy when he has negative sentiment. He was 24th last year in his first try and he’s getting better.
Brendan Steele 50% – He’ll be popular at his sub 8000 price. A solid cut making guy and he’s had a very solid career at this course. Never finishing worse than 26th and three top 6’s.